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Slovan Rosice vs Hanácká — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hanácká
Hanácká
P. Drbal 48'
S. Chwaszcz 78', 70'
9/18/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 7Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Slovan Rosice37%
×Draw25%
Hanácká38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.41
Hanácká
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 52 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.56
Hanácká
2.04

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.82
Hanácká
1.25

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Hanácká+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Hanácká →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
62%
Slovan Rosice or Hanácká
75%
Draw or Hanácká
63%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
17%
Hanácká wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
76%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
41%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
17%
Hanácká 1+ goals
76%
Hanácká 2+ goals
42%
Hanácká 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
49%
Hanácká (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

Hanácká away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.56 + Hanácká defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hanácká attack 2.04 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
37%
level
25%
Hanácká scores more
38%

Hanácká at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
T. Matousek
24'
P. Novak
48'
P. Drbal
64'
M. Votava← S. Chwaszcz
70'
S. Chwaszcz
76'
D. Plecity← D. Plecity
76'
P. Cervenka← P. Cervenka
76'
D. Kotasek← D. Kotasek
78'
S. Chwaszcz
80'
T. Selinger← J. Krejci
80'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
84'
M. Cupak
87'
M. Kozel← M. Kozel
90'
A. Houser

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 1–2 Hanácká

Hanácká beat Slovan Rosice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 18, 2022.

Goals: P. Drbal (48'), S. Chwaszcz (70', 78').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.