Slovan Ljubljana 0–3 Rudar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Slovan Ljubljana

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rudar

A. Kozina 60'

T. Kljun 37'

N. Fortuna 19' (OG)

9/21/2025

2. SNL · Round 7Športni park Kodeljevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Ljubljana41%

×Draw25%

Rudar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LjubljanaExpected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Slovan Ljubljana

1.50

Rudar

1.35

Slovan Ljubljana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

1.20

creates per match

1.27

1.43

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Slovan Ljubljana

1.20

Rudar

1.27

allows per match

Slovan Ljubljana

1.43

Rudar

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Ljubljana ↓

Rudar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Ljubljana or draw

66%

Slovan Ljubljana or Rudar

75%

Draw or Rudar

59%

Winning margin

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+

20%

Rudar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals

78%

Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals

44%

Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals

19%

Rudar 1+ goals

74%

Rudar 2+ goals

39%

Rudar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)

54%

Rudar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Ljubljana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.20 + Rudar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rudar attack 1.27 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovan Ljubljana scores more

41%

level

25%

Rudar scores more

34%

Slovan Ljubljana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovan Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

N. FortunaOwn goal

37'

T. Kljun

60'

A. Kozina

Slovan

Rudar

Manager: L. Žinko

Manager: S. Gajser