Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovan Ljubljana vs Brinje-Grosuplje — 2. SNL 2019

Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
S. Matjaz 89', 66', 48'
8/30/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 4Športni park Kodeljevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Ljubljana29%
×Draw25%
Brinje-Grosuplje47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Ljubljana
1.21
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.61

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.20
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.80

allows per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.43
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.22

finishing

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par
Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Ljubljana ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slovan Ljubljana or draw
53%
Slovan Ljubljana or Brinje-Grosuplje
75%
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
71%

Winning margin

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
12%
Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
34%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
12%
Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
80%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
48%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
38%
Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Ljubljana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.20 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.80 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovan Ljubljana scores more
29%
level
25%
Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
47%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
S. Matjaz
66'
S. Matjaz
89'
S. Matjaz
Slovan
Brinje-Grosuplje
L. Žinko
Manager: L. Žinko
Goran Markovic
Manager: Goran Markovic

2. SNL: Slovan Ljubljana 0–3 Brinje-Grosuplje

Brinje-Grosuplje beat Slovan Ljubljana 3-0 in 2. SNL on August 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Matjaz (48', 66', 89').

The match was played at Športni park Kodeljevo in Ljubljana.