Slovan Liberec W 3–0 Dukla Praha W: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dukla Praha W

11/19/2022

1. Liga Women · Round 11UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Liberec W70%

×Draw16%

Dukla Praha W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec WExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.18

Slovan Liberec W

2.78

Dukla Praha W

1.18

Slovan Liberec W creates 136% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.83

creates per match

0.53

1.83

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Dukla Praha W

0.53

allows per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Dukla Praha W

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec W ↓

Dukla Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec W or draw

86%

Slovan Liberec W or Dukla Praha W

84%

Draw or Dukla Praha W

30%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+

49%

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals

94%

Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals

76%

Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals

51%

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals

69%

Dukla Praha W 2+ goals

33%

Dukla Praha W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)

83%

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 60 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.83 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.78

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Slovan Liberec W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slovan Liberec W scores more

70%

level

16%

Dukla Praha W scores more

14%

Slovan Liberec W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff