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Slovan Liberec vs Teplice — Czech Liga 2019

Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Teplice
Teplice
3/15/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 26Stadion U Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slovan Liberec40%
×Draw28%
Teplice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec
1.24
Teplice
1.08

Slovan Liberec creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec
0.90
Teplice
1.04

allows per match

Slovan Liberec
1.12
Teplice
1.57

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less
Teplice+0.16scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Teplice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw
68%
Slovan Liberec or Teplice
72%
Draw or Teplice
60%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
17%
Teplice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
71%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
35%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
13%
Teplice 1+ goals
66%
Teplice 2+ goals
29%
Teplice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
55%
Teplice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Teplice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Teplice attack 1.04 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more
40%
level
28%
Teplice scores more
32%

Slovan Liberec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 1–1 Teplice

Slovan Liberec and Teplice drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion U Nisy in Liberec.