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Slovan Liberec vs Miedz Legnica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slovan Liberec67%
×Draw17%
Miedz Legnica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec
2.54
Miedz Legnica
1.13

Slovan Liberec creates 125% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec
2.65
Miedz Legnica
1.11

allows per match

Slovan Liberec
1.15
Miedz Legnica
2.44

finishing

Slovan Liberec+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw
85%
Slovan Liberec or Miedz Legnica
83%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
33%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
46%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
92%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
72%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
46%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
68%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
31%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
82%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 2.65 + Miedz Legnica defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.54

Miedz Legnica attack 1.11 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more
67%
level
17%
Miedz Legnica scores more
15%

Slovan Liberec at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs Miedz Legnica

Slovan Liberec beat Miedz Legnica 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Doubí in Liberec.