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Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
11/9/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 15Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slovan Liberec52%
×Draw25%
Hradec Králové23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec
1.62
Hradec Králové
0.99

Slovan Liberec creates 64% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec
0.90
Hradec Králové
0.86

allows per match

Slovan Liberec
1.12
Hradec Králové
2.34

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less
Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw
77%
Slovan Liberec or Hradec Králové
75%
Draw or Hradec Králové
48%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
28%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
48%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
22%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
63%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
26%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
69%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more
52%
level
25%
Hradec Králové scores more
23%

Slovan Liberec at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 0–0 Hradec Králové

Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in Czech Liga on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.