Slovan Liberec U19 2–2 Zlín U19: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zlín U19

4/18/2026

1. Liga U19 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slovan Liberec U1942%

×Draw21%

Zlín U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec U19Expected goals in this matchZlín U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.90

Slovan Liberec U19

2.04

Zlín U19

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

2.20

creates per match

1.62

2.18

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Slovan Liberec U19

2.20

Zlín U19

1.62

allows per match

Slovan Liberec U19

2.18

Zlín U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Zlín U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec U19 ↓

Zlín U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec U19 or draw

63%

Slovan Liberec U19 or Zlín U19

79%

Draw or Zlín U19

58%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+

23%

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals

87%

Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals

60%

Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals

33%

Zlín U19 1+ goals

85%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

56%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

Zlín U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 2.20 + Zlín U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.04

Zlín U19 attack 1.62 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more

42%

level

21%

Zlín U19 scores more

37%

Slovan Liberec U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Liberec U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff