Slovan Liberec U19 1–1 Karviná U19: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Karviná U19

11/11/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 15UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slovan Liberec U1950%

×Draw20%

Karviná U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec U19Expected goals in this matchKarviná U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.71

Slovan Liberec U19

2.25

Karviná U19

1.71

Slovan Liberec U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

2.20

creates per match

1.24

2.18

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Slovan Liberec U19

2.20

Karviná U19

1.24

allows per match

Slovan Liberec U19

2.18

Karviná U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec U19 or draw

70%

Slovan Liberec U19 or Karviná U19

80%

Draw or Karviná U19

50%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+

30%

Karviná U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals

89%

Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals

65%

Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals

39%

Karviná U19 1+ goals

82%

Karviná U19 2+ goals

51%

Karviná U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 2.20 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Karviná U19 scores more

30%

Slovan Liberec U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Liberec U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff