Slovan Liberec U19 1–1 Jablonec U19: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jablonec U19

V. Kaspar 90'

L. Kostka 24'

3/14/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 17UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Liberec U1950%

×Draw20%

Jablonec U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec U19Expected goals in this matchJablonec U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.69

Slovan Liberec U19

2.24

Jablonec U19

1.69

Slovan Liberec U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.20

2.18

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Slovan Liberec U19

2.20

Jablonec U19

1.20

allows per match

Slovan Liberec U19

2.18

Jablonec U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec U19 or draw

71%

Slovan Liberec U19 or Jablonec U19

80%

Draw or Jablonec U19

50%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+

30%

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals

89%

Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals

65%

Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals

38%

Jablonec U19 1+ goals

82%

Jablonec U19 2+ goals

50%

Jablonec U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 2.20 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.24

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Jablonec U19 scores more

29%

Slovan Liberec U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Liberec U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

L. Kostka

40'

F. Sirucek

46'

O. Vacek← O. Vacek

46'

O. Novotny← O. Novotny

48'

K. Svaty

56'

P. Kucera← P. Kucera

60'

J. Prinda← J. Prinda

69'

J. Zelingr

70'

K. Janu← K. Janu

80'

D. Kuhn← D. Kuhn

90'

V. Kaspar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff