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Slovan Liberec U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
R. Zitko 84'
M. Dolejs 52'
M. Strnad 44'
V. Butsko 30'
J. Pira 46'
P. Emmanuel 1'
6/1/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 29Umělá tráva Mestský stadion v Ustí nad Labem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slovan Liberec U1938%
×Draw21%
Baník Ostrava U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec U19
1.90
Baník Ostrava U19
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 77 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec U19
2.20
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Slovan Liberec U19
2.18
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec U19 or draw
59%
Slovan Liberec U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
79%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
62%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
20%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
85%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
56%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
29%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
86%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
59%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 2.20 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
38%
level
21%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
41%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
P. Emmanuel
30'
V. Butsko
44'
M. Strnad
46'
J. Pira
52'
M. Dolejs
84'
R. Zitko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19

Slovan Liberec U19 beat Baník Ostrava U19 4-2 in 1. Liga U19 on June 1, 2024.

Goals: P. Emmanuel (1'), V. Butsko (30'), M. Strnad (44'), J. Pira (46'), M. Dolejs (52'), R. Zitko (84').

The match was played at Umělá tráva Mestský stadion v Ustí nad Labem in Ústí nad Labem.