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Slovan Liberec II vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
9/14/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 6Stadion Frýdlant v Čechách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slovan Liberec II47%
×Draw22%
Arsenal Česká Lípa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec II
1.90
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50

Slovan Liberec II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec II
2.03
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.55

allows per match

Slovan Liberec II
1.45
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.77

finishing

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec II ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec II or draw
69%
Slovan Liberec II or Arsenal Česká Lípa
78%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
53%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
26%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
85%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
56%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
29%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
78%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
44%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
61%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec II attack 2.03 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.90

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.55 + Slovan Liberec II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovan Liberec II scores more
47%
level
22%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
31%

Slovan Liberec II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slovan Liberec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec II vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

Arsenal Česká Lípa beat Slovan Liberec II 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Frýdlant v Čechách in Frýdlant v Čechách.