Slovan Levice 2–0 Malženice: Result & Stats

Slovan Levice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Malženice

6/11/2022

3. liga - West · West - 31Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice30%

×Draw26%

Malženice45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LeviceExpected goals in this matchMalženice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.49

Slovan Levice

1.17

Malženice

1.49

Malženice creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

1.12

creates per match

1.69

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Slovan Levice

1.12

Malženice

1.69

allows per match

Slovan Levice

1.29

Malženice

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Malženice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw

55%

Slovan Levice or Malženice

74%

Draw or Malženice

70%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+

12%

Malženice wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals

69%

Slovan Levice 2+ goals

33%

Slovan Levice 3+ goals

11%

Malženice 1+ goals

77%

Malženice 2+ goals

44%

Malženice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)

40%

Malženice (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Malženice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Malženice attack 1.69 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovan Levice scores more

30%

level

26%

Malženice scores more

45%

Malženice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff