Slovan Levice 2–0 Lednické Rovne: Result & Stats

Slovan Levice

FT

2 – 0

Lednické Rovne

11/14/2021

3. liga - West · West - 15Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice45%

×Draw27%

Lednické Rovne28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LeviceExpected goals in this matchLednické Rovne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Slovan Levice

1.42

Lednické Rovne

1.06

Slovan Levice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.12

creates per match

0.83

1.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Slovan Levice

1.12

Lednické Rovne

0.83

allows per match

Slovan Levice

1.29

Lednické Rovne

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Lednické Rovne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw

72%

Slovan Levice or Lednické Rovne

73%

Draw or Lednické Rovne

55%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+

22%

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals

76%

Slovan Levice 2+ goals

41%

Slovan Levice 3+ goals

17%

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals

65%

Lednické Rovne 2+ goals

29%

Lednické Rovne 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)

62%

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovan Levice scores more

45%

level

27%

Lednické Rovne scores more

28%

Slovan Levice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovan Levice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff