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Slovan Levice vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
FT
1 – 1
Častkovce
Častkovce
9/26/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 8Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice39%
×Draw26%
Častkovce35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Levice
1.39
Častkovce
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Slovan Levice
1.12
Častkovce
1.32

allows per match

Slovan Levice
1.29
Častkovce
1.66

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par
Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Častkovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw
65%
Slovan Levice or Častkovce
74%
Draw or Častkovce
61%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+
18%
Častkovce wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals
75%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
40%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
16%
Častkovce 1+ goals
73%
Častkovce 2+ goals
38%
Častkovce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
52%
Častkovce (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovan Levice scores more
39%
level
26%
Častkovce scores more
35%

Slovan Levice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovan Levice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Slovan Levice 1–1 Častkovce

Slovan Levice and Častkovce drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Levice in Levice.