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Slovan HAC vs Red Star Penzing — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Slovan HAC
Slovan HAC
FT
5 – 2
Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing
11/30/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 15Slovanplatz Hütteldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan HAC48%
×Draw22%
Red Star Penzing30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan HAC
2.02
Red Star Penzing
1.58

Slovan HAC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slovan HAC
2.35
Red Star Penzing
1.40

allows per match

Slovan HAC
1.76
Red Star Penzing
1.70

finishing

Slovan HAC+0.00on par
Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan HAC ↓

Red Star Penzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Slovan HAC or draw
70%
Slovan HAC or Red Star Penzing
78%
Draw or Red Star Penzing
52%

Winning margin

Slovan HAC wins by 2+
27%
Red Star Penzing wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovan HAC 1+ goals
87%
Slovan HAC 2+ goals
60%
Slovan HAC 3+ goals
33%
Red Star Penzing 1+ goals
79%
Red Star Penzing 2+ goals
47%
Red Star Penzing 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Slovan HAC (draw refunded)
61%
Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan HAC at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

Red Star Penzing away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan HAC attack 2.35 + Red Star Penzing defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.02

Red Star Penzing attack 1.40 + Slovan HAC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slovan HAC scores more
48%
level
22%
Red Star Penzing scores more
30%

Slovan HAC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovan HAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan HAC vs Red Star Penzing

Slovan HAC beat Red Star Penzing 5-2 in Landesliga - Wien on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Slovanplatz Hütteldorf in Wien.