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Slovan HAC vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Slovan HAC
Slovan HAC
FT
3 – 2
Post
Post
8/14/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 15Slovanplatz Hütteldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Slovan HAC61%
×Draw18%
Post20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan HAC
2.57
Post
1.44

Slovan HAC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 43 away

creates per match

Slovan HAC
2.35
Post
1.12

allows per match

Slovan HAC
1.76
Post
2.79

finishing

Slovan HAC+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan HAC ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Slovan HAC or draw
80%
Slovan HAC or Post
82%
Draw or Post
39%

Winning margin

Slovan HAC wins by 2+
40%
Post wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovan HAC 1+ goals
92%
Slovan HAC 2+ goals
72%
Slovan HAC 3+ goals
47%
Post 1+ goals
76%
Post 2+ goals
42%
Post 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slovan HAC (draw refunded)
75%
Post (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan HAC at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan HAC attack 2.35 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.57

Post attack 1.12 + Slovan HAC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slovan HAC scores more
61%
level
18%
Post scores more
20%

Slovan HAC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slovan HAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan HAC 3 – 2 Post

Slovan HAC beat Post 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Slovanplatz Hütteldorf in Wien.