Slovan Giraltovce 2–0 Veľké Revištia

Slovan Giraltovce

FT

2 – 0

Veľké Revištia

8/8/2020

3. liga - East · East - 3Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce68%

×Draw18%

Veľké Revištia13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan GiraltovceExpected goals in this matchVeľké Revištia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.87

Slovan Giraltovce

2.25

Veľké Revištia

0.87

Slovan Giraltovce creates 159% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

1.24

creates per match

0.63

1.11

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.24

Veľké Revištia

0.63

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.11

Veľké Revištia

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Veľké Revištia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw

87%

Slovan Giraltovce or Veľké Revištia

82%

Draw or Veľké Revištia

32%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

45%

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

89%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

65%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

39%

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals

58%

Veľké Revištia 2+ goals

22%

Veľké Revištia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

84%

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

68%

level

18%

Veľké Revištia scores more

13%

Slovan Giraltovce at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff