Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovan Giraltovce vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
CANC
12:30
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
11/14/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 17Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce24%
×Draw22%
Tatran Prešov54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Giraltovce
1.21
Tatran Prešov
1.94

Tatran Prešov creates 60% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 23 away

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.24
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.11
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw
46%
Slovan Giraltovce or Tatran Prešov
78%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
76%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
9%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
34%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
12%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
86%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
58%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
30%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more
24%
level
22%
Tatran Prešov scores more
54%

Tatran Prešov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovan Giraltovce host Tatran Prešov

November 14, 2020: Slovan Giraltovce take on Tatran Prešov in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovan Giraltovce host Tatran Prešov at Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.