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Slovan Giraltovce vs Spišská Nová Ves — 3. liga - East 2020

Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
FT
0 – 1
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
5/29/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 13Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce28%
×Draw27%
Spišská Nová Ves45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Giraltovce
1.07
Spišská Nová Ves
1.42

Spišská Nová Ves creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 64 away

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.24
Spišská Nová Ves
1.73

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.11
Spišská Nová Ves
0.91

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw
55%
Slovan Giraltovce or Spišská Nová Ves
73%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
72%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
11%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
66%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
29%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
9%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
76%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
41%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
39%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more
28%
level
27%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
45%

Spišská Nová Ves at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Giraltovce vs Spišská Nová Ves

Spišská Nová Ves beat Slovan Giraltovce 1-0 in 3. liga - East on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce in Giraltovce.