Slovan Giraltovce 1–0 Sobrance: Result & Stats

Slovan Giraltovce

FT

1 – 0

Sobrance

9/18/2021

3. liga - East · East - 9Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce60%

×Draw22%

Sobrance18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan GiraltovceExpected goals in this matchSobrance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.92

Slovan Giraltovce

1.88

Sobrance

0.92

Slovan Giraltovce creates 104% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

1.11

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.24

Sobrance

0.73

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.11

Sobrance

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Sobrance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw

82%

Slovan Giraltovce or Sobrance

78%

Draw or Sobrance

40%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

35%

Sobrance wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

85%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

56%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

29%

Sobrance 1+ goals

60%

Sobrance 2+ goals

23%

Sobrance 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

77%

Sobrance (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

60%

level

22%

Sobrance scores more

18%

Slovan Giraltovce at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff