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Slovan Giraltovce vs Poprad — 3. liga - East 2020

Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Poprad
Poprad
4/9/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 20Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce47%
×Draw25%
Poprad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Giraltovce
1.57
Poprad
1.17

Slovan Giraltovce creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 58 away

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.24
Poprad
1.22

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.11
Poprad
1.91

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par
Poprad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Poprad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw
72%
Slovan Giraltovce or Poprad
75%
Draw or Poprad
53%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
24%
Poprad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
79%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
46%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
21%
Poprad 1+ goals
69%
Poprad 2+ goals
33%
Poprad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
62%
Poprad (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Poprad away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Poprad defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Poprad attack 1.22 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more
47%
level
25%
Poprad scores more
28%

Slovan Giraltovce at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Slovan Giraltovce 1–1 Poprad

Slovan Giraltovce and Poprad drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce in Giraltovce.