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Slovan Giraltovce vs Oravské Veselé — 3. liga - East 2020

Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
6/3/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 29Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce52%
×Draw24%
Oravské Veselé24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Giraltovce
1.67
Oravské Veselé
1.04

Slovan Giraltovce creates 61% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.24
Oravské Veselé
0.97

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.11
Oravské Veselé
2.10

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par
Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Oravské Veselé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw
76%
Slovan Giraltovce or Oravské Veselé
76%
Draw or Oravské Veselé
48%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
28%
Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
81%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
50%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
23%
Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
65%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
28%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
69%
Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Oravské Veselé defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Oravské Veselé attack 0.97 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more
52%
level
24%
Oravské Veselé scores more
24%

Slovan Giraltovce at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Slovan Giraltovce 2–0 Oravské Veselé

Slovan Giraltovce beat Oravské Veselé 2-0 in 3. liga - East on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce in Giraltovce.