Slovan Duslo Šaľa 0–3 Zlaté Moravce: Result & Stats

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zlaté Moravce

M. Tomek 87'

S. Hodur 35'

F. Balaj 17'

7/10/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa10%

×Draw13%

Zlaté Moravce76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Duslo ŠaľaExpected goals in this matchZlaté Moravce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

3.13

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

1.10

Zlaté Moravce

3.13

Zlaté Moravce creates 185% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

0.67

creates per match

2.27

4.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

0.67

Zlaté Moravce

2.27

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

4.00

Zlaté Moravce

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Zlaté Moravce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw

24%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Zlaté Moravce

87%

Draw or Zlaté Moravce

90%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+

3%

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals

67%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals

30%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals

10%

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

95%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

81%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)

12%

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 0.67 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Zlaté Moravce attack 2.27 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more

10%

level

13%

Zlaté Moravce scores more

76%

Zlaté Moravce at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Zlaté Moravce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

F. Balaj

35'

S. Hodur

87'

M. Tomek

Slovan

Zlaté

Manager: M. Babinec

Manager: R. Hudec