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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Slovan Levice — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
5 – 0
Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
9/4/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa77%
×Draw14%
Slovan Levice9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.78
Slovan Levice
0.85

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 227% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Slovan Levice
0.47

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Slovan Levice
3.35

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Slovan Levice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
91%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Slovan Levice
86%
Draw or Slovan Levice
23%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
56%
Slovan Levice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
94%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
76%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
51%
Slovan Levice 1+ goals
57%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
21%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
90%
Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.78

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
77%
level
14%
Slovan Levice scores more
9%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Slovan Duslo Šaľa 5–0 Slovan Levice

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Slovan Levice 5-0 in 3. liga - West on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.