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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
1 – 0
Nitra II
Nitra II
10/2/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 9Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa65%
×Draw19%
Nitra II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.32
Nitra II
1.05

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 121% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
84%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Nitra II
81%
Draw or Nitra II
35%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
43%
Nitra II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
90%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
67%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
40%
Nitra II 1+ goals
65%
Nitra II 2+ goals
28%
Nitra II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
80%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.32

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
65%
level
19%
Nitra II scores more
16%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1 – 0 Nitra II

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Nitra II 1-0 in 3. liga - West on October 2, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.