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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
2 – 1
Marcelová
Marcelová
10/30/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 13Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa57%
×Draw21%
Marcelová23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.12
Marcelová
1.27

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 67% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
77%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Marcelová
79%
Draw or Marcelová
43%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
34%
Marcelová wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
88%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
62%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
35%
Marcelová 1+ goals
72%
Marcelová 2+ goals
36%
Marcelová 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
72%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
57%
level
21%
Marcelová scores more
23%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Marcelová

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Marcelová 2-1 in 3. liga - West on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.