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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
5/4/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 25Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa45%
×Draw25%
Lokomotíva Zvolen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.60
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.29

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
69%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Lokomotíva Zvolen
75%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
55%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
47%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
59%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
45%
level
25%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
31%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1–2 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2-1 in 3. liga - West on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.