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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
1 – 0
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
10/7/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 4Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa54%
×Draw22%
Kalná nad Hronom23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.91
Kalná nad Hronom
1.17

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 63% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
77%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Kalná nad Hronom
78%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
46%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
31%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
85%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
57%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
30%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
69%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
33%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
70%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
54%
level
22%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
23%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1 – 0 Kalná nad Hronom

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Kalná nad Hronom 1-0 in 3. liga - West on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.