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Kalná nad Hronom vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
CANC
13:30
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
4/4/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 19Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom47%
×Draw24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.67
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.26

Kalná nad Hronom creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 85 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
71%
Kalná nad Hronom or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
76%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
53%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
25%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
81%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
50%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
23%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
72%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
36%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
62%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
47%
level
24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
29%

Kalná nad Hronom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kalná nad Hronom host Slovan Duslo Šaľa

April 4, 2021: Kalná nad Hronom take on Slovan Duslo Šaľa in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kalná nad Hronom host Slovan Duslo Šaľa at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.