Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2–1 Častkovce: Result & Stats

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Častkovce

10/5/2024

3. liga - West · West - 10Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa52%

×Draw22%

Častkovce25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Duslo ŠaľaExpected goals in this matchČastkovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.28

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

1.93

Častkovce

1.28

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

2.20

creates per match

1.32

1.24

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

2.20

Častkovce

1.32

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

1.24

Častkovce

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Častkovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw

75%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Častkovce

78%

Draw or Častkovce

48%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+

30%

Častkovce wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals

85%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals

57%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals

30%

Častkovce 1+ goals

72%

Častkovce 2+ goals

37%

Častkovce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)

67%

Častkovce (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.93

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more

52%

level

22%

Častkovce scores more

25%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff