Slovan Bratislava W 8–1 Petržalka W: Result & Stats

Slovan Bratislava W

FT

8 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Petržalka W

10/12/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 10Umelá tráva Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slovan Bratislava W78%

×Draw12%

Petržalka W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Bratislava WExpected goals in this matchPetržalka W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.39

1.17

Slovan Bratislava W

3.39

Petržalka W

1.17

Slovan Bratislava W creates 190% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

4.14

creates per match

1.38

0.96

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava W

4.14

Petržalka W

1.38

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava W

0.96

Petržalka W

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Petržalka W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava W ↓

Petržalka W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava W or draw

90%

Slovan Bratislava W or Petržalka W

88%

Draw or Petržalka W

22%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+

60%

Petržalka W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals

96%

Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals

84%

Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals

64%

Petržalka W 1+ goals

69%

Petržalka W 2+ goals

33%

Petržalka W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)

89%

Petržalka W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava W at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

Petržalka W away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava W attack 4.14 + Petržalka W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 3.39

Petržalka W attack 1.38 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Slovan Bratislava W scores more

78%

level

12%

Petržalka W scores more

10%

Slovan Bratislava W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff