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Slovan Bratislava W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
5/11/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Championship Round - 6Štadión Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Slovan Bratislava W85%
×Draw9%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava W
4.01
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.09

Slovan Bratislava W creates 268% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava W
4.14
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava W
0.96
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava W or draw
94%
Slovan Bratislava W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
91%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
15%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
70%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
98%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
90%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
73%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
66%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
30%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
93%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava W at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava W attack 4.14 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 4.01

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Slovan Bratislava W scores more
85%
level
9%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
6%

Slovan Bratislava W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Bratislava W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Slovan Bratislava W and Dukla Banská Bystrica W drew 1-1 in I Liga - Women on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Pasienky in Bratislava.