Slovan Bratislava 2–2 Zrinjski: Result & Stats

Slovan Bratislava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Zrinjski

S. Zuberu 66'

A. Čavrić 5'

A. Ivančić 90+3'

H. Barišić 75'

8/1/2023

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundŠtadión Tehelné pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovan Bratislava52%

×Draw26%

Zrinjski22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan BratislavaExpected goals in this matchZrinjski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.90

Slovan Bratislava

1.52

Zrinjski

0.90

Slovan Bratislava creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava

1.43

Zrinjski

0.80

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava

1.00

Zrinjski

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava ↓

Zrinjski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava or draw

78%

Slovan Bratislava or Zrinjski

74%

Draw or Zrinjski

48%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

27%

Zrinjski wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

78%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

45%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

20%

Zrinjski 1+ goals

59%

Zrinjski 2+ goals

23%

Zrinjski 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

70%

Zrinjski (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.43 + Zrinjski defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zrinjski attack 0.80 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Bratislava scores more

52%

level

26%

Zrinjski scores more

22%

Slovan Bratislava at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Zuberu

Slovan Bratislava · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

A. Čavrić↳ J. Kucka

11'

Kerim Memija

46'

T. Kiš← Z. Kožulj

46'

A. Ivančić← M. Stanić

54'

Mario Ćuže

54'

Hrvoje Barišić

58'

Nemanja Bilbija

65'

I. Jukić← M. Tičinović

65'

M. Malekinušić← M. Ćuže

66'

S. Zuberu↳ A. Čavrić

71'

Antonio Ivančić

73'

D. Zlomislić← N. Bilbija

74'

Vladimír Weiss

75'

H. Barišić↳ T. Kiš

77'

N. Marcelli← S. Zuberu

78'

T. Barseghyan← V. Weiss

87'

M. Abubakari← A. Čavrić

90+6'

90+5'

90+4'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovanZrinjski

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots14

7Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target5

5Off Target7

1Blocked2

5Inside Box9

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

456Total Passes440

395Accurate Passes378

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0