Slovan Bratislava 1–1 Zemplín Michalovce

Slovan Bratislava

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zemplín Michalovce

D. Strelec 50'

Samuel Ramos 69'

2/15/2025

League #332 · Round 20Štadión Tehelné pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovan Bratislava42%

×Draw24%

Zemplín Michalovce34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan BratislavaExpected goals in this matchZemplín Michalovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.43

Slovan Bratislava

1.60

Zemplín Michalovce

1.43

Slovan Bratislava creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.60

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava

2.00

Zemplín Michalovce

1.60

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava

1.25

Zemplín Michalovce

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava ↓

Zemplín Michalovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava or draw

66%

Slovan Bratislava or Zemplín Michalovce

76%

Draw or Zemplín Michalovce

58%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

21%

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

80%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

47%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

22%

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals

76%

Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals

42%

Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

55%

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Zemplín Michalovce away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava attack 2.00 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.60 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Bratislava scores more

42%

level

24%

Zemplín Michalovce scores more

34%

Slovan Bratislava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Tolić

Slovan Bratislava · M

8.9

Match Events

46'

S. Danko← B. Cottrell

46'

Samuel Ramos← A. Musák

46'

K. Taylor-Hart← J. Sivi

50'

53'

65'

69'

73'

73'

A. Gajdoš← A. Mustafić

73'

V. Weiss← R. Mak

81'

Danylo Ignatenko

88'

I. Metsoko← K. Wimmer

90'

Y. Shimamura← A. Zubairu

90+3'

A. Žulevič← K. Taylor-Hart

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovanZemplín

Overview

72%Possession28%

23Total Shots8

15Corners2

9Fouls18

Shots

23Total Shots8

4On Target3

11Off Target5

8Blocked0

16Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

621Total Passes244

539Accurate Passes167

87%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2