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Slovan Bratislava vs FC Basel 1893 — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893advanced
3/16/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Štadión Tehelné pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Slovan Bratislava34%
×Draw28%
FC Basel 189338%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava
1.15
FC Basel 1893
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava
1.23
FC Basel 1893
1.33

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava
1.15
FC Basel 1893
1.07

finishing

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava or draw
62%
Slovan Bratislava or FC Basel 1893
72%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
66%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+
14%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals
68%
Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals
32%
Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals
11%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
71%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
35%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)
47%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.23 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.33 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slovan Bratislava scores more
34%
level
28%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
38%

FC Basel 1893 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Bratislava vs FC Basel 1893

Slovan Bratislava and FC Basel 1893 drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 16, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Tehelné pole in Bratislava.