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Slovan Bratislava II vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Slovan Bratislava II
Slovan Bratislava II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
3/20/20222. liga2. liga · Round 21Štadión Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slovan Bratislava II49%
×Draw23%
Slavoj Trebišov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava II
1.79
Slavoj Trebišov
1.29

Slovan Bratislava II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 69 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava II
1.58
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava II
1.60
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava II ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava II or draw
72%
Slovan Bratislava II or Slavoj Trebišov
77%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
51%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+
27%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals
83%
Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals
53%
Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals
26%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
37%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)
64%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.58 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.79

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slovan Bratislava II scores more
49%
level
23%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
28%

Slovan Bratislava II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Bratislava II vs Slavoj Trebišov

Slovan Bratislava II beat Slavoj Trebišov 2-1 in 2. liga on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Pasienky in Bratislava.