Slovan Bratislava II 1–1 Púchov: Result & Stats

Slovan Bratislava II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Púchov

11/9/2025

2. liga · Round 16Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Slovan Bratislava II43%

×Draw23%

Púchov34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Bratislava IIExpected goals in this matchPúchov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.50

Slovan Bratislava II

1.72

Púchov

1.50

Slovan Bratislava II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

1.58

creates per match

1.39

1.60

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava II

1.58

Púchov

1.39

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava II

1.60

Púchov

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Púchov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava II ↓

Púchov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava II or draw

66%

Slovan Bratislava II or Púchov

77%

Draw or Púchov

57%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+

22%

Púchov wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals

82%

Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals

51%

Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals

25%

Púchov 1+ goals

78%

Púchov 2+ goals

44%

Púchov 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)

56%

Púchov (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Púchov away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.58 + Púchov defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Púchov attack 1.39 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slovan Bratislava II scores more

43%

level

23%

Púchov scores more

34%

Slovan Bratislava II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff