Slovan Bratislava II 1–0 Inter Bratislava

Slovan Bratislava II

FT

1 – 0

Inter Bratislava

2/1/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Slovan Bratislava II55%

×Draw22%

Inter Bratislava23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Bratislava IIExpected goals in this matchInter Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.14

Slovan Bratislava II

1.90

Inter Bratislava

1.14

Slovan Bratislava II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.30

creates per match

0.67

1.60

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava II

1.30

Inter Bratislava

0.67

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava II

1.60

Inter Bratislava

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava II ↓

Inter Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava II or draw

77%

Slovan Bratislava II or Inter Bratislava

78%

Draw or Inter Bratislava

45%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+

32%

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals

85%

Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals

56%

Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals

29%

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals

68%

Inter Bratislava 2+ goals

32%

Inter Bratislava 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)

71%

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava II at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Inter Bratislava away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.30 + Inter Bratislava defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Inter Bratislava attack 0.67 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Slovan Bratislava II scores more

55%

level

22%

Inter Bratislava scores more

23%

Slovan Bratislava II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff