Slovan Bratislava II 1–1 Humenné: Result & Stats

Slovan Bratislava II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Humenné

5/16/2025

2. liga · Round 26Štadión Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Slovan Bratislava II43%

×Draw26%

Humenné31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Bratislava IIExpected goals in this matchHumenné

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.22

Slovan Bratislava II

1.48

Humenné

1.22

Slovan Bratislava II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 58 away

1.58

creates per match

0.84

1.60

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava II

1.58

Humenné

0.84

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava II

1.60

Humenné

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava II ↓

Humenné →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava II or draw

69%

Slovan Bratislava II or Humenné

74%

Draw or Humenné

57%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+

21%

Humenné wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals

77%

Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals

43%

Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals

19%

Humenné 1+ goals

70%

Humenné 2+ goals

34%

Humenné 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)

58%

Humenné (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Humenné away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.58 + Humenné defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Humenné attack 0.84 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slovan Bratislava II scores more

43%

level

26%

Humenné scores more

31%

Slovan Bratislava II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff