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Slovakia W vs Latvia W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Slovakia W
Slovakia W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Latvia W
Latvia W
3/3/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 1NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovakia W52%
×Draw19%
Latvia W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia W
2.50
Latvia W
1.83

Slovakia W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Slovakia W
1.33
Latvia W
1.00

allows per match

Slovakia W
2.67
Latvia W
3.67

finishing

Slovakia W+0.00on par
Latvia W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia W ↓

Latvia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Slovakia W or draw
72%
Slovakia W or Latvia W
81%
Draw or Latvia W
48%

Winning margin

Slovakia W wins by 2+
33%
Latvia W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovakia W 1+ goals
92%
Slovakia W 2+ goals
71%
Slovakia W 3+ goals
45%
Latvia W 1+ goals
84%
Latvia W 2+ goals
54%
Latvia W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Slovakia W (draw refunded)
65%
Latvia W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Latvia W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia W attack 1.33 + Latvia W defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Latvia W attack 1.00 + Slovakia W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovakia W scores more
52%
level
19%
Latvia W scores more
28%

Slovakia W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovakia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovakia W vs Latvia W

Slovakia W beat Latvia W 3-2 in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe on March 3, 2026.

The match was played at NTC Poprad in Poprad.