Slovakia 4–1 Ukraine: Result & Stats

Slovakia

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ukraine

Róbert Mak 61'

Adam Zreľák 52'

Juraj Kucka 26'

Albert Rusnák 6'

Yevhen Konoplyanka 47'

11/16/2018

UEFA Nations League · League B - 5Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slovakia48%

×Draw24%

Ukraine28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlovakiaExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.26

Slovakia

1.71

Ukraine

1.26

Slovakia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

1.27

1.25

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Slovakia

1.33

Ukraine

1.27

allows per match

Slovakia

1.25

Ukraine

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw

72%

Slovakia or Ukraine

76%

Draw or Ukraine

52%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+

26%

Ukraine wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals

82%

Slovakia 2+ goals

51%

Slovakia 3+ goals

24%

Ukraine 1+ goals

72%

Ukraine 2+ goals

36%

Ukraine 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)

63%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 1.33 + Ukraine defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ukraine attack 1.27 + Slovakia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slovakia scores more

48%

level

24%

Ukraine scores more

28%

Slovakia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Albert Rusnák↳ Marek Hamšík

14'

Igor Plastun← Sergey Kryvtsov

22'

Mykyta Burda

26'

Juraj Kucka↳ Ján Greguš

30'

Matúš Bero← Juraj Kucka

47'

Yevhen Konoplyanka↳ Oleksandr Karavaiev

49'

Ján Greguš

52'

Adam Zreľák↳ Albert Rusnák

61'

Róbert Mak↳ Albert Rusnák

62'

Viktor Kovalenko← Andriy Boryachuk

64'

Mykola Shaparenko← Yevhen Konoplyanka

69'

Miroslav Stoch← Róbert Mak

82'

Michal Ďuriš← Adam Zreľák

87'

Taras Stepanenko

90'

Igor Plastun

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SlovakiaUkraine

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots11

4Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target7

5Off Target4

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

5Offsides2