Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovakia vs Scotland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Slovakia
Slovakia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Scotland
Scotland
Jan Gregus 31'
11/15/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 5CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slovakia37%
×Draw27%
Scotland36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia
1.27
Scotland
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slovakia
1.33
Scotland
1.22

allows per match

Slovakia
1.25
Scotland
1.22

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par
Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Scotland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw
64%
Slovakia or Scotland
73%
Draw or Scotland
63%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+
16%
Scotland wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals
72%
Slovakia 2+ goals
36%
Slovakia 3+ goals
14%
Scotland 1+ goals
71%
Scotland 2+ goals
35%
Scotland 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)
51%
Scotland (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 1.33 + Scotland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Scotland attack 1.22 + Slovakia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Slovakia scores more
37%
level
27%
Scotland scores more
36%

Slovakia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Marek RodákSlovakiaSlovakia · G
8.5

Match Events

30'
Stuart Armstrong
31'
Jan Gregus↳ Peter Pekarík
41'
John McGinn
44'
Juraj Kucka
56'
Peter Pekarík
58'
Milan Škriniar
61'
Stanislav Lobotka← Juraj Kucka
65'
Ondrej Duda
68'
Albert Rusnák← Marek Hamšík
68'
Leigh Griffiths← Andy Considine
77'
Róbert Mazáň
87'
Lawrence Shankland← Stuart Armstrong
88'
Albert Rusnák
90+3'
Ryan Christie
90'
Pavol Šafranko← Michal Ďuriš

Possession

50%Slovakia

Shots

8Slovakia

Pass accuracy

50%Slovakia

Statistics

SlovakiaScotland
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots14
1Corners4
15Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots14
5On Target5
2Off Target6
1Blocked3
1Inside Box10
7Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
544Total Passes511
463Accurate Passes427
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls16
6Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Slovakia vs Scotland

Slovakia beat Scotland 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 15, 2020.

Goals: Jan Gregus (31').

Slovakia controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava.