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Slovakia vs Kosovo — League #32 2026

Slovakia
Slovakia
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Kosovo
Kosovo
D. Strelec 90'
L. Haraslin 45'
M. Valjent 6'
K. Hajrizi 72'
F. Muslija 60'
F. Asllani 47'
V. Hodza 21'
3/26/2026League #32League #32 · Semi-finalsTehelne Pole Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slovakia53%
×Draw22%
Kosovo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia
2.00
Kosovo
1.33

Slovakia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Slovakia
2.00
Kosovo
1.17

allows per match

Slovakia
1.50
Kosovo
2.00

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par
Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Kosovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw
75%
Slovakia or Kosovo
78%
Draw or Kosovo
47%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+
31%
Kosovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals
86%
Slovakia 2+ goals
59%
Slovakia 3+ goals
32%
Kosovo 1+ goals
74%
Kosovo 2+ goals
38%
Kosovo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)
68%
Kosovo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 2.00 + Kosovo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kosovo attack 1.17 + Slovakia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slovakia scores more
53%
level
22%
Kosovo scores more
25%

Slovakia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
L. HaraslinSlovakiaSlovakia · F
8.6

Match Events

6'
M. Valjent↳ L. Haraslin
14'
Kreshnik Hajrizi
21'
V. Hodza↳ M. Vojvoda
25'
Lumbardh Dellova
45'
T. Suslov← L. Sauer
45'
L. Haraslin
47'
F. Asllani↳ M. Vojvoda
51'
Veldin Hodža
60'
F. Muslija
72'
K. Hajrizi
73'
B. Zabergja← F. Asllani
83'
L. Benes← O. Duda
83'
L. Tupta← L. Haraslin
89'
Denis Vavro
90+5'
Martin Valjent
90'
S. Mraz← M. Bero
90'
F. Hadergjonaj← F. Muslija
90'
L. Emerllahu← V. Hodza
90'
A. Rrahmani← V. Muriqi
90'
D. Strelec↳ D. Hancko

Possession

57%Slovakia

Shots

20Slovakia

Pass accuracy

53%Slovakia

Statistics

SlovakiaKosovo
Overview
57%Possession43%
20Total Shots9
7Corners3
14Fouls16
Shots
20Total Shots9
8On Target5
5Off Target2
7Blocked2
13Inside Box6
7Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
441Total Passes324
374Accurate Passes241
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

League #32: Slovakia 3–4 Kosovo

Kosovo beat Slovakia 4-3 in League #32 on March 26, 2026.

Goals: M. Valjent (6'), V. Hodza (21'), L. Haraslin (45'), F. Asllani (47'), F. Muslija (60'), K. Hajrizi (72'), D. Strelec (90').

Slovakia controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Tehelne Pole Stadion in Bratislava.