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Slovakia vs Bulgaria — Friendlies 2026

Slovakia
Slovakia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
L. Bénes 27'
A. Iliev 9'
6/1/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slovakia60%
×Draw23%
Bulgaria16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia
1.74
Bulgaria
0.78

Slovakia creates 123% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slovakia
2.08
Bulgaria
0.80

allows per match

Slovakia
0.75
Bulgaria
1.40

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw
84%
Slovakia or Bulgaria
77%
Draw or Bulgaria
40%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+
34%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals
82%
Slovakia 2+ goals
52%
Slovakia 3+ goals
25%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
54%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
18%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)
79%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 2.08 + Bulgaria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bulgaria attack 0.80 + Slovakia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slovakia scores more
60%
level
23%
Bulgaria scores more
16%

Slovakia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Iliev↳ K. Despodov
27'
L. Bénes↳ V. Weiss
46'
D. Strelec← R. Boženík
46'
M. Rodák← D. Kuciak
46'
D. Yankov← M. Tsvetanov
46'
N. Mihaylov← D. Naumov
46'
D. Iliev← B. Kraev
57'
E. Jirka← V. Weiss
57'
T. Suslov← L. Haraslín
60'
G. Minchev← A. Iliev
69'
K. Malinov← P. Vitanov
72'
P. Hrošovský← M. Bero
81'
M. Ďuriš← S. Lobotka
82'
B. Karagaren← K. Despodov
90'
Tomáš Suslov

Possession

55%Slovakia

Shots

8Slovakia

Statistics

SlovakiaBulgaria
Overview
55%Possession45%
8Total Shots7
6Corners3
15Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots7
3On Target2
5Off Target5
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Friendlies: Slovakia 1–1 Bulgaria

Slovakia and Bulgaria drew 1-1 in Friendlies on June 1, 2021.

Goals: A. Iliev (9'), L. Bénes (27').

Slovakia controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.