Slovakia 2–0 Azerbaijan: Result & Stats

Slovakia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Azerbaijan

M. Hamšík 86'

R. Boženík 19'

11/19/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 10City Arena Trnava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slovakia48%

×Draw26%

Azerbaijan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlovakiaExpected goals in this matchAzerbaijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Slovakia

1.46

Azerbaijan

1.00

Slovakia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.17

creates per match

0.50

1.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Slovakia

1.17

Azerbaijan

0.50

allows per match

Slovakia

1.50

Azerbaijan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Azerbaijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw

74%

Slovakia or Azerbaijan

74%

Draw or Azerbaijan

52%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+

24%

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals

77%

Slovakia 2+ goals

43%

Slovakia 3+ goals

18%

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

63%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

26%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)

65%

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 1.17 + Azerbaijan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Azerbaijan attack 0.50 + Slovakia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slovakia scores more

48%

level

26%

Azerbaijan scores more

26%

Slovakia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Hamšík

Slovakia · M

8.7

Match Events

19'

R. Boženík↳ M. Hamšík

45'

Javid Huseynov

45'

Eddy Silvestre

46'

E. Camalov← E. İsrafilov

62'

Lukáš Haraslín

71'

M. Ďuriš← L. Haraslín

73'

T. Xəlilzadə← A. Krivotsyuk

77'

S. Mráz← R. Boženík

79'

Renat Dadaşov← Cavid Hüseynov

82'

Milan Škriniar

85'

O. Duda← J. Kucka

86'

M. Hamšík

88'

Tamkin Khalilzadeh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovakiaAzerbaijan

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots4

5Corners1

9Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots4

8On Target1

4Off Target3

4Blocked0

6Inside Box3

10Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

695Total Passes382

620Accurate Passes297

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0