Slovakia U19 W 1–1 Hungary U19 W: Result & Stats

Slovakia U19 W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hungary U19 W

5/28/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesDAC Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovakia U19 W24%

×Draw25%

Hungary U19 W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovakia U19 WExpected goals in this matchHungary U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.57

Slovakia U19 W

1.00

Hungary U19 W

1.57

Hungary U19 W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.14

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slovakia U19 W

1.00

Hungary U19 W

2.14

allows per match

Slovakia U19 W

1.00

Hungary U19 W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia U19 W+0.00on par

Hungary U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 W ↓

Hungary U19 W →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 W or draw

49%

Slovakia U19 W or Hungary U19 W

75%

Draw or Hungary U19 W

76%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 W wins by 2+

Hungary U19 W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 W 1+ goals

63%

Slovakia U19 W 2+ goals

26%

Slovakia U19 W 3+ goals

Hungary U19 W 1+ goals

79%

Hungary U19 W 2+ goals

46%

Hungary U19 W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 W (draw refunded)

32%

Hungary U19 W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Hungary U19 W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 W attack 1.00 + Hungary U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hungary U19 W attack 2.14 + Slovakia U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slovakia U19 W scores more

24%

level

25%

Hungary U19 W scores more

51%

Hungary U19 W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hungary U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff