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Slovakia U19 vs Ukraine U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Slovakia U19
Slovakia U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Ukraine U19
Ukraine U19
M. Gono 1'
H. Tsitaishvili 70'
M. Mudryk 45+2' (pen)
D. Sikan 35'
I. Isaienko 11'
10/16/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slovakia U1920%
×Draw22%
Ukraine U1958%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia U19
1.07
Ukraine U19
1.98

Ukraine U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Slovakia U19
1.14
Ukraine U19
2.10

allows per match

Slovakia U19
1.86
Ukraine U19
1.00

finishing

Slovakia U19+0.00on par
Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 ↓

Ukraine U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 or draw
42%
Slovakia U19 or Ukraine U19
78%
Draw or Ukraine U19
80%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+
7%
Ukraine U19 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 1+ goals
66%
Slovakia U19 2+ goals
29%
Slovakia U19 3+ goals
9%
Ukraine U19 1+ goals
86%
Ukraine U19 2+ goals
59%
Ukraine U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)
26%
Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Ukraine U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 attack 1.14 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ukraine U19 attack 2.10 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Slovakia U19 scores more
20%
level
22%
Ukraine U19 scores more
58%

Ukraine U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Gono
11'
I. Isaienko
35'
D. Sikan
45+2'
M. MudrykPenalty
70'
H. Tsitaishvili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Slovakia U19 1–4 Ukraine U19

Ukraine U19 beat Slovakia U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 16, 2018.

Goals: M. Gono (1'), I. Isaienko (11'), D. Sikan (35'), M. Mudryk (45+2' pen), H. Tsitaishvili (70').

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.