Slovakia U19 0–2 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Slovakia U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Poland U19

A. Rybak 26'

K. Nowakowski 10'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slovakia U1934%

×Draw27%

Poland U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovakia U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.33

Slovakia U19

1.23

Poland U19

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

1.36

1.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 or draw

61%

Slovakia U19 or Poland U19

73%

Draw or Poland U19

66%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

71%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

35%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

13%

Poland U19 1+ goals

74%

Poland U19 2+ goals

38%

Poland U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 attack 1.29 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovakia U19 scores more

34%

level

27%

Poland U19 scores more

39%

Poland U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

K. Nowakowski

16'

K. Kolanko← K. Nowakowski

26'

A. Rybak

29'

S. Fasko

44'

S. Fasko

44'

S. Fasko

46'

R. Petruška← S. Šarudi

62'

D. Mikołajewski← A. Rybak

62'

F. Rózga← B. Barański

62'

J. Faberski← M. Reguła

65'

M. Kucman← D. Adamkovič

65'

S. Dikoš← F. Kóša

69'

K. Kurowski← M. Sznaucner

81'

83'

83'

90+1'

90+1'

Slovakia

Poland

1

4

2

5

14

21

▼

Barański

6

▼

Sznaucner

16

▼

Reguła

20

Adkonis

15

⚽

▼

Nowakowsk

9

⚽

▼

23

5

2

4

15

▼

Staník

16

Vlna

10

Faško

8

▼

Šarudi

19

▼

Kóša

18

▼

Adamkovič

14

▼

Kubka

Manager: M. Fabuš

46'▲R. Petruška←▼S. Šarudi

65'▲M. Kucman←▼D. Adamkovič

65'▲S. Dikoš←▼F. Kóša

83'▲R. Korba←▼T. Staník

83'▲S. Lusale←▼O. Kubka

Slovakia U19 substitutes

11Petruška20Kucman7Dikoš17Korba13Lusale3Dovičák1Jokl9Pekelský6Tománek

Manager: W. Kobeszko

16'▲K. Kolanko←▼K. Nowakowski

62'▲D. Mikołajewski←▼A. Rybak

62'▲F. Rózga←▼B. Barański

62'▲J. Faberski←▼M. Reguła

69'▲K. Kurowski←▼M. Sznaucner

Poland U19 substitutes

11Kolanko10Mikołajewski7Rózga19Faberski13Kurowski12Stępak3Szkliński23Mońka

Match Recap: Slovakia U19 vs Poland U19

Poland U19 beat Slovakia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

Goals: K. Nowakowski (10'), A. Rybak (26').

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena in Tbilisi.

Slovakia U19 vs Poland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Slovakia U19 vs Poland U19