Slovakia U19 2–1 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Slovakia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Luxembourg U19

R. Petruška 70'

O. Kubka 32'

L. Nürenberg 26'

10/9/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Terrain Jos Bloes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slovakia U1947%

×Draw25%

Luxembourg U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovakia U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.21

Slovakia U19

1.61

Luxembourg U19

1.21

Slovakia U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Slovakia U19

1.29

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slovakia U19 or draw

71%

Slovakia U19 or Luxembourg U19

75%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

53%

Winning margin

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

24%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

80%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

48%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

22%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

70%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

34%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia U19 attack 1.29 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovakia U19 scores more

47%

level

25%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

29%

Slovakia U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slovakia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Hasa

4'

T. Desurmont

26'

L. Nürenberg

32'

O. Kubka

46'

A. Da Silva← E. Thelen

46'

L. Sever← T. Desurmont

51'

D. Sabotic

55'

S. Dikos

56'

R. Korba← D. Adamkovič

65'

M. Pekelský← S. Dikoš

65'

T. Staník← O. Kubka

69'

F. Hoxha← A. Qevani

70'

R. Petruška

78'

R. Petruska

78'

M. Benslaiman← L. Nürenberg

84'

T. Vavrík← F. Kóša

84'

T. Leßing← J. Barbalinardo

90+5'

D. Duarte

Slovakia

Luxembourg

12

Schmit

2

▼

Barbalina

4

Mancini

17

Brites

5

▼

Thelen

8

▼

Desurmont

6

Sabotic

10

Duarte

9

⚽

▼

Nürenberg

11

Domingos

20

▼

23

3

5

4

2

10

11

⚽

Petruška

7

▼

Dikoš

19

▼

Kóša

18

▼

Adamkovič

14

⚽

▼

Kubka

Manager: M. Fabuš

56'▲R. Korba←▼D. Adamkovič

65'▲M. Pekelský←▼S. Dikoš

65'▲T. Staník←▼O. Kubka

84'▲T. Vavrík←▼F. Kóša

Slovakia U19 substitutes

8Korba9Pekelský15Staník16Vavrík20Kucman12Petrúfka6Tománek17Pavlík13Šarudi

Manager: M. Mutsch

46'▲A. Da Silva←▼E. Thelen

46'▲L. Sever←▼T. Desurmont

69'▲F. Hoxha←▼A. Qevani

78'▲M. Benslaiman←▼L. Nürenberg

84'▲T. Leßing←▼J. Barbalinardo

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

19Silva15Sever7Hoxha16Benslaiman3Leßing14Giesteira1Azemi13Foutey18Pinheiro

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Slovakia U19 2–1 Luxembourg U19

Slovakia U19 beat Luxembourg U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2024.

Goals: L. Nürenberg (26'), O. Kubka (32'), R. Petruška (70').

The match was played at Terrain Jos Bloes in Bascharage.

Slovakia U19 vs Luxembourg U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Slovakia U19 2–1 Luxembourg U19